The Russian Bear

Germany's fixation on its' lack of natural geographical borders, especially to the east, has been used as an explanation for German aggression ever since the creation of the Prussian State in 1642 but harks back to Roman times.

The focus on "indefensible" borders has precipitated a number of wars, WW I and II being the most recent and the most devastating. The creation of the EU and the inclusion of Germany in 1955, after the Soviet Union had requested joining NATO was a difficult but logical step during the Cold War. As late as 1985 of the 26 divisions guarding the Central European Frontier 12 of them were German.

So although much has been made recently of concerns about Germany's apparent shift in position as regards Germany's role as the financial provider to Europe, little was said of Germany's role as the largest Army on the Continent.

Clearly the reason for this was a fear of the Soviet Union, and a willingness to use German troops as a bulwark against the threat of invasion. France's nuclear weapons were aimed at the East/West German border-the next war was going to fought in Germany.

What many people don't realise is that the Russians are filled with the same concerns of geographic vulnerability. Russia has no barriers to the east until the Urals. The North German Plain-essentially encompassing Poland was not only viewed by the Germans as a route for invasion from the east; the Russians had the same concerns albeit in this case it was invasion from the west.

So Russia has traditionally sought to insure that they controlled the land to the south east thus expanding into the Ukrainian marshlands-Ivan the Terrible; to the Urals and the Central Asian steppe and the Tien Shan-Catherine the Great and into Eastern and Central Europe-the Soviet Union.

Depending on when in history one looks essentially the Russians have been worried about the Swedes and the Germans to the west; the Chinese/Mongolians from the southeast; and Turks and Iranian from the south/southwest.

Unlike in Europe where Germany was bound into the framework of the EU and NATO, Russia has been the major power with a strategy to coerce/conquer those lands adjacent to it to provide either natural borders or at least buffer states to protect the Russian homeland.

The encroachment of NATO from the Baltics to Southeast Europe in the years since the fall of the Soviet Union has dented both Russia's ego, and reopened the doors to fears of invasion. With the US preoccupied in Iraq and Afghanistan the Russians have been busy trying to regain their "empire". This ranged from agitating in the Ukraine to preclude Ukrainian inclusion in NATO; aggression in the Caucasus to insure that Chechnya, Ingushetia, Daqgestan, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan don't fall sway to Iran or Turkey, re-establishing influence in Kazakhstan and Belarus, and recently Russian involvement in Kyrgyzstan to ensure that the Fergana Valley, home to most of Central Asia's population, remains a no-man's land looking to Russia for protection.

Then came Katyn.

One of the first things to notice when looking at maps of Katyn is to recognise that in 1939 Polands eastern border included Minsk and Kiev. The Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, as was Belarus. Today Belarus and the Ukraine are independent, but much more clearly in the Russian sphere of influence, and Poland was already in the sights of Russian planning.

The history of Polish-Russian relations is not pleasant and so it was especially poignant that yet another "massacre", from the Polish perspective, should have occurred in Katyn, even if it appears to have been an accident/pilot error.

Indeed, the German media is most concerned with the cause of the crash speaking somewhat confidently of "discussions" in the cockpit which help explain the decision to try and land despite the recommendation from the Russian Air Controllers to go to either Minsk or Moscow. Much is made of Kaczynski's poor relationship with Belarus (Minsk) and Russia (Moscow)-he was not officially invited to the ceremony but rather the Russian-friendly Minister President Tusk (who was therefore not on the same plane).

In any event there has been a massive change in the relationship between Russia and Poland-at least from the side of the Russians who have quickly moved-some would say cynically-to announce a National Day of Mourning for the Polish dead and to use the opportunity to try and ease the tension between the two nations.

Strange that when the Germans are perceived to act in their self-interest the media is quick to splash it over the headlines. When Russia acts in its' self-interest, it shows up on page 17.