Egypt and the Limits of Intervention

I tend to avoid the Middle East as it crosses too many lines of faith/belief and rapidly leaves the realm of rational thought and dives in to the emotional.

That being said with the regime change in Tunisia-funny how that story has dropped from the headlines-and now the ongoing turmoil in Egypt suddenly the region has taken on even greater significance in the minds of geopolitical strategists.

What is most striking to me is how quickly the western media leaps to the conclusion that it is the voices of liberty and a desire for democracy that has been the driving force. I think that the great mass of the population, be it in Tunisia or Egypt is much more concerned with the state of the economy and the cost of food.

That is not to say that there are not aspects of a desire for liberal democracy involved in the demonstrations, but we in the west should be wary of projecting our values, hopes and desires on to the rest of the world.

What I think is missing in the discussion is what is actually in the interests of the Egyptian people, and frankly speaking, I doubt it is how Egypt fits in to the designs of geopolitical concerns.

Hillary Clinton's comments suggesting a desire to keep Mubarak in place suits the geopolitical vision of the US and by extension Israel, and quite possibly Iran. Egypt is the most populous of the Middle Eastern states and unlike Iran is overwhelmingly Sunni as opposed to Shia.

If Egypt were to experience a revolution resulting in the creation of an Islamic Republic this would be a major counterweight to the Shia Islamic power of Iran. This does not mean necessarily that the Iranians are active in any meaningful manner on either side of the Egyptian divide.

It does mean that everyone is watching.

The transition from a monarchy/British "directed" Egypt to a secular Military dictatorship under Nasser, then Sadat and now Mubarak was a form of progress, even if the British didn't see it that way.

A shift to an Islamist Egypt would unwind the U.S. strategy in place since the Yom Kippur War of 1973 and the shift by Sadat to move out of his alliance with the Soviet Union and into the American sphere of influence. Presumably an Islamist Egypt would eventually threaten Israel and could be cataclysmic to the region.

I think what the Egyptian population is really desiring is a stable economy able to provide food and stability to the country. It is not for nothing that the Chinese have removed all references to Egypt and social unrest there from the internet traffic of their citizenry.

The fact is that inflation in general, and spiralling food and energy prices specifically have historically gone hand in hand with social and political turmoil.

Whoever offers this, and delivers, will run the show.