The Chickens Come Home to Roost. Part III: Self Determination, Religion and Energy.

While in Cuba the Middle East decided to try and overthrow their governments. Tunisia succeeded with the result that there are now more Tunisian immigrants trying to enter Europe than ever before. The Egyptians got rid of Mubarak only to replace him with a group of military officers so no real change there. The Libyan "rebels" suddenly find themselves hung out to dry as Qaddafi's military is finally unleashed and the West realises that it doesn't really want to get drawn into a civil war.

But the real battle is in Bahrain. Iran and Saudi Arabia find themselves in their own proxy war. The conflict between Shia and Sunni, between Iran and the Saudis is reaching the critical stage. Back in the UK I read reports comparing the uprisings in the Middle East with the "Velvet Revolutions" of 1989 as the Eastern Bloc came unravelled. Personally they smell much more like 1936/7 in continental Europe.

And then the earthquake in Japan, the Tsunami, and the nuclear crisis. Without any question the physical destruction in Japan has been made significantly worse by the damage to the reactors at Fukishima. The combination of a massive earthquake and a Tsunami-they were called tidal waves when I was a kid and we all thought they were specific to Japan-obviously wasn't in the calculations of the nuclear plant security planners and that can be seriously questioned.

But the furore which has broken out in many western countries, most specifically Germany is reaching the heights of hysteria.

The reactors at Fukishima withstood an earthquake even stronger than the worst-case scenario for which they were designed. They did not survive the Tsunami. As mentioned, why you would build a reactor on the coast in a region known for earthquakes and Tsunamis without planning for the latter is beyond me. But that is not the discussion in Germany.

The risk of earthquakes in Germany is significantly lower than in Japan. None of the German reactors are in coastal regions which alleviates the risk of Tsunamis. Some are built close to earthquake faults, but the Japanese experience shows that that can be planned for.

No, the discussion in Germany is that some of the reactors were built before the risk of terrorists using airplanes as "flying bombs" was recognised and so they are not safe against crashing airplanes!

So Frau Merkel suggests that the 7 oldest nuclear facilities in Germany should be taken off the grid while safety checks are carried out given the new concerns of reactor safety following the Japanese crisis.

The opposition screams that she is doing this because of the regional elections currently taken place although it is what they have been clamouring for. Three months ago after much rancour all the parties agreed that over time Germany would exit from nuclear energy but because there is a law blocking the construction of new plants-the last German Nuclear Plant was built in 1989-the current plants operational lifespans would be extended 8 to 14 years depending on their age.

Now Merkel is hounded for deciding to review the 7 oldest plants. The opposition has even accused her of acting illegally in this decision as a means of trying to force her to resign.

Regardless of one's view on nuclear energy I am astonished at the hypocrisy of the political classes and the ignorance of the electorate.

Everyone gives lip-service to the needs of the environment but few actually are willing to accept the short to medium-term sacrifices that will be required before we can truly rely on renewable energy sources.

In the interim in addition to worries about nuclear energy no one wants coal-fired plants; no one wants next-generation high tension electrical lines or storage stations near their homes; no one wants windmill farms near them; no one wants new hydroelectric dams; and no one wants to remain dependent on oil.

I think everyone wants to go to heaven, and nobody wants to die.