Thursday, 4 August 2011

The Fears of Contagion-but of what Malady?

The history of Europe has been a constant battle for Continental hegemony. The power players on the board have changed over the centuries with Germany taking pride of place as the most persistent contestant for the last 125 years albeit with a respite following the end of the Second World War until the game was continued following German reunification in 1989.

So it is with mixed feelings for much of Europe to see the rise of Germany yet again although this time in a much more acceptable fashion.

According to Fritz Fischer Germany's aims in the First World War were actually to create a ZEP of Central Economics Zone which at the time was looking to central and eastern Europe.

In the Second World War one of the underlying themes was to create Lebensraum-again in the east, for the future generations of Germans.

This time around Germany's rise to continental preeminence didn't ride in on the coattails of tanks and didn't include warped ideologies and armies of occupation.

No, this time around the virtues of organisation, a strong work ethic and the willingness to accept austerity measures on themselves-and now to expect that others follow-have led to a German-led Europe.

There are many, outside and even inside of Germany who have their doubts that the Greeks, for example, will be able to adjust to a German-style approach to solving their fiscal problems. There are also concerns that the Portuguese, and following the fears of contagion coursing through the psyche of the European markets these concerns are voiced on Portugal and Spain.

In France however, there are outright fears that the old enemy has completely and comprehensively outmaneuvered them and that the French star is setting for the foreseeable future.

The recent statements out of Britain actively accepting that they are on the outside looking in regarding continental developments highlights the comprehensive nature of the German renaissance.

Coupled with this German resurgence is the reappearance on the European stage of the Russians who also had a brief hiatus following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The real question is whether the contagion of which one speaks is a southern European one, or yet again a meeting of the minds between the Russians and the Germans.

Historically this has not been good.

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