Is it the Spring of 1912, the Fall of 1914, or September 1938?

The first Balkan War of 1912 was started by the Russian sponsored Balkan League which was formed to eject the Ottoman Empire from the Balkans.

The Fall of 1914 is the 100th anniversary of the start of World War I, the blame for which could be aimed at the Russians for their then support of the Serbians in their efforts to escape the clutches of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Given that the Russians lost and with it the Czar disappeared most commentators forget about the battles in the East and focus on the Germans as the guilty ones in World War I- but that is a different post.

Or, with the advantage of hindsight, are we bending over backwards to ensure 'peace in our time' although in this case not as a result of German but rather Russian geopolitical imperatives.

The truth is I don't know.

But I do know that we are in a much more dangerous position than many people appreciate.

On the subject of history the Crimea has been part of Russia since Catherine the Great.  It remained so more or less until Khrushchev-himself a Ukrainian-decided to give it to the Ukraine.

So much for history.

If we go back further than Catherine then the Crimea belonged to numerous peoples-as did almost every other piece of land on earth.  The problem with going back in history is that empires rise and fall.  Sometimes of their own volition, and sometimes through invasion.

This time around there are a lot of voices suggesting that the Crimea, with its majority of ethnic Russians should be allowed to go "back" to Russia.

I even understand that thought.

But to allow the Russians of the Crimea to vote to return to Russia would suggest that wherever there are ethnic minorities, who are however majorities in their ethnic enclaves, they should be allowed to vote to become part of their "parent" countries.

I am not sure that this is a good precedent.

It is true that the lines of nation-states have been drawn somewhat arbitrarily reflecting either the status quo-or a desire to change the status quo-depending on the time and the situation and so there are many borderlands of countries that today look out of place.

Whatever changes are made could look equally out of place tomorrow.

To start allowing these kind of votes will open up fissures between peoples that have actually often enough lived happily together until it was brought to their attention that maybe they shouldn't really get along with one another.

Every group has its own geopolitical hang-ups.  There is always a border which can not be defended; there is always a lack of natural resources, of fertile land.  Essentially every group wants to be in charge of its own destiny-even when that destiny is fraught with danger.

This is the seed of nationalism.  Today it is often a response to globalism.  The benefits of globalism are often positive on a macro level, and equally often negative on a micro level.  This is compounded by the fact that the weak are generally at the mercy of the strong, regardless of how the strong present their case.

So back to my question.

What are the Russians really up to?