Thursday 1 October 2015

Peace in Our Time....

I have been worried that Mr Putin's manoeuvrings kept smelling like Hitler's antics regarding the Rhineland, Austria, the Sudetenland and Czechoslovakia only for Poland to be the straw that broke the camel's back.


For like Hitler, Putin is playing on the fact that the West has demonstrated that it doesn't really have the stomach for war and so Putin has continuously pushed allowing each fait accompli to create a new reality.


And so we sat and watched as he stockpiled tanks, airplanes and other military hardware in Assad's piece of Syria, just as the West saw Hitler do the same thing time and time again.


Now he has again demonstrated that he has no intention of respecting agreements or understandings and that he is willing to do whatever he thinks is necessary to further his goals.


The ball is in our court. 


But Putin is playing on many courts. 


He is determined to maintain a deep-water port in the Mediterranean and the path to that end is through Assad.


He is annoyed that he was cut out of the USA/Iran deal, and this gives him some weight with Iran in that they are both interested in supporting Assad, though for different reasons.


And he was out to demonstrate that his Russia can match if not outdo the USA on the world stage as he certainly showed no compunction in blatantly bombing anti-Assad militias under the cover that he was acting to join the anti IS-coalition.


Lastly, over the past few weeks Putin been the good guy in reining in the Ukrainian separatists on the battlefield and in negotiations. 


I would venture to say that his actions in Syria were designed to rope the US into Russian led diplomacy in the Middle East, and get the US to engage in the Ukraine.


The US didn't play ball. 


They have not yet really responded to Putin's actions in Syria, and they did not engage in the Ukraine regarding a discussion on sanctions or a reduction in military and political aid to Kiev.


For me the question is where are we in the "run-up" to WWII with regards to Putin?  Hitler had actually hoped that the West would not come to Poland's defence in September 1939.  It was a colossal bet, that went badly wrong in the end.


At the loss of some 40 million lives.


But that's what Putin is counting on.  He just might be waking a dragon.


 

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