And You Shall Reap What You Have Sown....

Although I still harbour some concerns about Mr Obama's approach to Syria insofar as I think he and his advisors have underestimated the truly medieval aspect of the IS's ideology and the fact that they have intentionally declared war on any and all who don't adhere to their draconian version of Islam I also appreciate that the myriad groupings make it all but impossible to have a clear strategy.


Enter Russia.


Mr Putin  thought he had a clear strategy.  He thought he could create realities on the ground which would position Russia favourably when it came to discuss a diplomatic solution.


And indeed there were many voices-a sheer cacophony from the Republican ranks- but even grumblings from the Democrats that the moment called for a man of action rather than a man of intellectual reflection.


It was couched in terms of "leadership" but meant that they didn't want a wet washcloth in the White House but-dare I say it-longed for a dubbya to take those terrorists by the throat and show them who's who.


And so we watched as the Russians fortified air bases and then brought in masses of offensive hardware and launched indiscriminate bombing raids primarily on the various groupings of "moderate Islamists" who were part of a Syrian civil war while ostensibly bombing IS.


I was dumbfounded that we sat and watched the Russians bomb "our" proxies while we left "their" proxy Assad alone. 
We cried foul when he defended Assad rather than attack his supposed target of IS, and then sat and watched him do it.


But then Mr Putin got a little too cocky.  Up until that point no one was willing to militarily engage the Russians directly despite all their provocations.


But with Mr Erdogan he came up against an adversary who is cut from a cloth much closer to Mr Putin's than from the Americans or Europeans who he had been bullying.
And Mr Erdogan not only has NATO weaponry-he has shown that he is willing to use it.


Add to that the fact that Russia and Turkey have been competing for supremacy in the Caucasus/Near and Middle East for centuries and you suddenly have a situation where Syria is to Turkey what the Ukraine is to Russia.


I don't wish to bring the Ukraine into this spat except to highlight the differences.  Turkey is well-armed.  Is a member of NATO.   And unlike the Ukraine was a major power for the better part of 600 years before its demise at the end of WWI.


And like Russia,  it harbours imperial ambitions.


So when the Russians continually ignored Turkish warnings for actual or borderline incursions into their airspace while bombing Turkish proxies it is not all that surprising that threats turned into action.


If this were a novel it would make for a good plot twist.  But it is not.


Turkey has essentially called Russia's bluff. 


One can only hope that the result is to clarify spheres of influence/military activity and that everyone adheres to the rules and focuses on containing if not defeating IS rather than opening up new fronts.


As I said.


One can only hope....